Migration Patterns to Purple States
This blog is a little outside my comfort zone but I think it poses the changes we are facing as a nation from a Real Estate perspective. Much of this information was taken from a realtor.com column sent to my email. I'll post the link for reference but here's my summary!
Looking back on the 2016 Presidential Election, a few swing states arguably shocked the nation as Donald Trump won. As you can imagine with all that is behind us and also what is ahead of us, a few "swing states" are being eyed as polling numbers are rolling out. Let's take a look at 5 states that might be flip-flopping from red to blue or vice versa. But first, why are these states being viewed as purple states?
We are experiencing a trend of Americans migrating from urban cities typically associated with high housing prices and usually Democratic leaning to more affordable suburbs and rural areas, historically Republican based. This could** have an impact on the outcome of the upcoming Presidential Election as Americans are taking advantage of bigger homes in more spread out areas now that work (and school) from home is very real and even permanent for some. Politico has identified 13 states as "Battleground States". Four of those states had an extremely close voting split. They are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the trend has been blue (Democrat) voters moving to predominantly red (Republican) states.
For this analysis, realtor.com tracked home shopper activity to and from every single county in the nation since 2017. They are also assuming that the home shopper's political affiliation matches their current state when they are viewing properties in the states mentioned above. For example, last election Florida was a red state (Trump). The migration patterns are showing the Top 5 states home shoppers are looking at homes in Florida are from Georgia (also Red) New York (Blue), New Jersey (Blue), Illinois (Blue), and California (Blue). This example is assuming Florida could swing Blue (Biden) this election.
I am in no way qualified to give an opinion on how the upcoming Presidential election might play out but I am qualified to give a perspective on how migration patterns are affecting local real estate here in Western Washington! The city of Seattle has seen a 1,300% increase in the average number of showings until an offer is accepted! Keep in mind, it's still a sellers market all over the state of Washington but this is a lead indicator that tells us that there's less people looking in Seattle (14 day average for number of showings until an offer is accepted) and more people looking in Pierce County (8 day average). Sellers are seeing an overwhelming amount of activity on their homes once they hit the market and I believe some of that is because there's an influx of buyers coming down from King County and up from California. For buyers, this means even more competition to a competitive market. We are having to get really strategic with our Buyer clients from the moment we start the hunt. We are going over the '17 Ways to Spice up Your Offer' at our very first meeting! Knowledge is Power.
Red States, Blue States, Republican Party, Democratic Party... I think we should just have a Pizza Party when you move in to your new house. Be kind to your neighbor during these volatile times, it gets us through it -- together. Be Safe!